Sunday, August 29, 2010

My name is Earl, uh, Fiona, oh, wait … maybe, I don’t have a name yet: The newest spin in tactical weather bombing

By Phasma Scriptor

Until this week, all was quiet on the weather fronts from the last accurate prediction of a tornado being guided over the heart of NYC (see “This IS Kansas, Dorothy … better grab Toto, the wicked weather-witch this way comes”). The tornado through Philly was an unexpected bonus. That attack took advantage of the manipulation of the jetstream that had persistently been given a fairly narrow west-to-east track. Unfortunately, the watchword is hang on, Yankees, hang on. Apparently, the Rothschild weather bombers have opened up an attempt to divert at least one hurricane against the Northeastern Corridor (NEC) and, perhaps, more.

The last hurricane that made landfall in the NEC was the so-called Long Island Express of 1938 (LIX), September 21 to be exact, thought to have been brought rapidly up the East Coast by a late summer jetstream dipping down to the Carolinas and then turning north. The surmise is that the high-speed trip (60-70 mph vs. a more sedate 10-20 mph) from Florida to Long Island was due to this jetstream boost.

As a Category 3 cyclone, the LIX was the worst hurricane ever recorded for the NEC, the 1st since 1869. But, the LIX striking Long Island was a purely natural occurrence. Earl won’t be; nor would Fiona, or anything of the other systems that pop off the West Coast of Africa like so many depth charges from Mother Nature this time of year. The African end will continue to be the work of Mom, but the business end in the Western Atlantic may become more Mutha than Mom, if there’s a successful diversion of any cyclone in this most active portion of the season.

There didn’t appear to be anything out of the ordinary in early-to-mid-August, until this weekend when Danielle collided with the lower-right arc of a high-pressure system (HPS, running clockwise, CW) that had dominated an enormous part of the mid-section of the US for the entire summer (which Fermilab/Argonne-Labs helped maintain and then utilize in the tornado attack on the NEC). The Huntsville/Oak-Ridge facility shoved that HPS arc out into an area just off the South Carolina coast as Danielle approached. The HPS figured into the computer models that assigned a projected path for Danielle that took it far from the East Coast; however, the lower-right arc of the HPS, stretching from the Gulf to SC effectively defending the entire East Coast, was taken out by Danielle. The (counter-clockwise (CCW) low pressure system (Danielle) effectively shredded an enormous hole in the Gulf-SC defensive line, leaving behind a weak, disorganized eddy.

Today (Sun, 8/29), the next summer assault on the NEC looks like it became a go when a path for Earl and, perhaps Fiona, was cleared by Danielle. Although the paths of hurricanes don’t like to be predictable, they're still subject to fairly sophisticated modeling. As of today, the models project Earl's path across a typically wide swath at this stage of development (forecasting Earl to come near but not touch the NEC coastline); the radar readings show Earl is intensifying significantly; my weather bomber tactical decoder ring, however, indicates that, if Huntsville/O-R can keep the HPS from interfering w/Earl or Fiona or both (by inducing turbulence in the disorganized eddies over Florida), then Norfolk and the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab (PPPL) can modulate the Earl/Fiona path and divert either or both into the NEC.

The destruction levied by any hurricane is amplified when the powerful cyclonic winds stall over a vulnerable area. The jetstream is not going to rush either Earl or Fiona up the East Coast, unlike the LIX; that’s because the jetstream is being encouraged to take a soft left turn up through Montana into Canada, thence east after a soft right, followed by a rather crazy hard right over Maine and, then, a very tight u-turn northward over the Atlantic. This action suggests an attempt by the PPPL to stall Earl and/or Fiona over the NEC, if Norfolk can pull either of the current named storms westward to take a path into that CW arcing of the jetstream over Maine.


Another bonus track: The previous prediction of a low probability for mortgage rates dipping to 4 or below isn’t so improbable anymore. With mortgage rates recently sliding to new all-time lows, the 10-year Treasury rate (slipping to close to 2.4% last week) indicates the potential for 3.9%, although the 10-year yield would likely have to get to at least 2.25% and stay there for a while for that to happen. The 30-year Treasury rate has already slid below 4; however, with traders obeying the counter-intuitive, though common, “buy on the rumor, sell the news” strategy, rates shot up when Chairman Ben announced that the Fed would be buying long-term bonds (thus, lowering yields) to give a boost to the economy.

The goons amongst the Rs, if their current obstructionist tactics are an indication (they are), want the nation’s economy to disintegrate for political reasons (ignoring the vast social costs, which also affect the financial costs); that’s what will happen (and becomes increasingly inevitable), if so-called austerity measures are forced upon our system by know-nothing Rs leading know-less-than-nothing dumshitteabaggers and a bunch of other assorted idiots to cry for a balanced budget. Again, the nations that hold our sovereign debt (Treasury paper) do NOT have us over a barrel; we have them over a barrel. The US is many, many, many times too-big-to-fail; we just need to play our stacked deck right. It should be easy, but, thanks to the Rs and their shit-for-brains followers, it hasn’t been and won’t be.

Should the federal budget ship be righted and put on a diet toward the ideal of balance? Sure, but not now. The rapidly expanding financial benefits generated by e-commerce will follow the explosion of smartphones which will enable the final exponential lurch of the velocity of money to the speed at which smartphones operate - light-speed. These benefits haven’t begun to have their greatest impact which, when brought to a boil, will launch the global economy, the US obviously included, into five to ten years’ worth of wild growth, negating the need for a diet. It’ll be the final and most monstrous bubble which, nevertheless could be, might be, avoided, but when have humans ever learned to avoid blowing into the bubble until it pops and makes your face all sticky?